Lisa Maree Williams/Bloomberg
Turmoil in global commodity markets is turning into a windfall for Australia, with the government upgrading its export earnings forecasts as gold prices surge and iron ore holds up better than expected despite cooling Chinese demand.
The Department of Industry, Science and Resources now expects resource and energy export revenue to reach $405 billion in the 2025-26 financial year and $416 billion in 2026-27, upgrades of $22 billion and $42 billion respectively from its December forecasts. The revisions reflect a global environment where supply disruptions and safe-haven demand have pushed up prices for the raw materials Australia exports in bulk.
Gold has been the standout. Export earnings from the metal are forecast to peak at $73 billion in 2026-27, driven by a price rally tied to investors seeking safety amid broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Iron ore remains Australia’s single largest export by value, still accounting for more than 25% of all resource and energy export earnings over the forecast period, even as prices are expected to soften over time, with iron ore export earnings projected to fall from $117 billion in 2025-26 to $77 billion by 2030-31 as new global supply comes online.
The upgrade underscores Australia’s position as one of the chief beneficiaries of commodity-market stress elsewhere in the world: as other economies grapple with supply shortages and price spikes, often the direct result of the same instability rattling energy and shipping markets globally, Australia’s resources sector is capturing higher prices for the same volumes of gold, iron ore and other raw materials it has long exported. That dynamic is now flowing straight through to the country’s export income, even as policymakers acknowledge the longer-term outlook still points toward softer iron ore prices as new mining capacity comes on line in the years ahead.
