Turkey is shifting its rare earth strategy toward the United States, opening a potential new chapter in global resource diplomacy after negotiations with China and Russia stalled over security and pricing concerns. Turkish officials confirmed this week that preliminary talks have begun with Washington over a strategic partnership in rare earth mining, refining, and export, signaling Ankara’s growing alignment with Western industrial supply chains.
The move comes as nations across the globe race to secure access to rare earth elements (REEs) — the critical materials used in electric vehicles, defense systems, AI chips, and renewable energy technologies. Long dominated by China, the rare earth market has become one of the most strategically contested sectors of the 21st century.
“Turkey recognizes that rare earths are not just commodities — they’re the lifeblood of the next industrial revolution,” said Fatih Dönmez, Turkey’s former energy minister and current adviser on strategic industries. “The decision to deepen cooperation with the United States reflects both opportunity and necessity.” 
A Strategic Pivot Toward the West
Turkey’s turn toward the U.S. follows months of slow-moving talks with Beijing and Moscow, both of which have sought long-term supply contracts and joint development rights in Turkey’s Eskişehir and Kırşehir mineral zones. However, insiders say disagreements over technology transfer and export control terms have hindered progress.
“The Chinese offered investment but demanded strict export guarantees and exclusivity,” said a senior Turkish energy official speaking on condition of anonymity. “That would have tied our hands for decades. The Americans, on the other hand, are offering partnership — not dependency.”
Ankara’s potential deal with Washington is expected to focus on rare earth processing technologies, a stage of the supply chain that remains largely concentrated in China. The U.S., seeking to diversify its sources and reduce reliance on Beijing, has been actively scouting allied nations with untapped reserves.
“Turkey is a natural fit,” said Dr. Melissa Grant, a U.S.-based energy security analyst at the Atlantic Council. “It’s geostrategically positioned between Europe and Asia, has substantial rare earth deposits, and shares NATO-level defense cooperation with the United States. This could become one of the cornerstone partnerships in the emerging non-Chinese rare earth network.”
Turkey’s Rare Earth Potential
Turkey’s rare earth potential is significant but underdeveloped. The country’s Eskişehir Beylikova deposit, managed by state-owned Eti Maden, is estimated to contain over 600,000 tons of rare earth oxides — one of the largest reserves outside China.
The government has pledged to invest heavily in local refining capacity, with pilot production lines already under construction. However, analysts note that full-scale development requires advanced extraction technologies, environmental safeguards, and export logistics — areas where U.S. cooperation could prove transformative.
“Turkey has the minerals, but not yet the refining know-how or global buyer network,” said Selin Kaya, a mining economist at Istanbul Technical University. “Partnering with the United States could accelerate Turkey’s rise as a rare earth hub serving both European and Middle Eastern markets.”
Geopolitical Undercurrents
The potential U.S.-Turkey deal also carries deep geopolitical implications. Ankara has spent years balancing its foreign policy between Western allies and Eurasian partners. But as tensions rise between NATO and Russia, and as China’s economic influence faces global scrutiny, Turkey appears increasingly inclined to re-anchor its industrial partnerships toward the West.
“This is part of a broader strategic recalibration,” said Dr. Kerem Alkan, a political scientist at Middle East Technical University. “President Erdoğan’s government understands that being a reliable Western supplier of critical minerals strengthens Turkey’s negotiating leverage — economically and politically.”
The shift may also ease strains with Washington after years of friction over Turkey’s S-400 missile purchase from Russia and disputes surrounding human rights and regional military operations. A major economic collaboration in rare earths could offer both countries a mutually beneficial reset.
“Energy and resources have always been the bridge between Ankara and Washington,” said Grant. “This could be the foundation of a renewed strategic partnership.”
US Interest: Securing the Supply Chain
For the United States, the deal aligns with its broader critical minerals strategy, unveiled by the Biden administrationand strongly supported by congressional Republicans. The strategy aims to create secure, diversified supply lines for materials essential to semiconductors, EVs, and national defense.
Currently, China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth mining and over 85% of processing capacity. U.S. officials have identified Turkey as one of the few countries capable of offering both geological potential and political reliability.
“Every ton of rare earths refined outside China is a victory for supply chain resilience,” said Daniel Hicks, deputy assistant secretary for energy diplomacy at the U.S. State Department. “Turkey’s cooperation would significantly strengthen our strategic position.”
Washington is expected to offer Ankara technical expertise, joint venture opportunities, and financing supportthrough the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Export-Import Bank. In return, Turkey would prioritize exports to NATO allies and U.S.-aligned industries, ensuring that the materials do not flow to sanctioned or adversarial states.
China and Russia Respond Cautiously
While the proposed U.S.-Turkey partnership remains in early stages, both Beijing and Moscow have expressed concern. Chinese media outlets have described Turkey’s shift as “a politically motivated deviation,” while Russian commentators accused Ankara of “joining the Western resource containment agenda.”
Despite these criticisms, Turkish officials insist that the move is purely economic, emphasizing their intent to maintain open trade with all nations. “Turkey’s goal is not confrontation but diversification,” Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated during a recent press conference. “We are open to cooperation with all partners — provided it is fair, transparent, and respects our sovereignty.”
Economic Outlook and Market Reactions
The news of potential U.S.-Turkey cooperation has already sent ripples through the rare earth market. Shares in Eti Maden’s subcontractors and local mining firms saw a surge in trading on the Borsa Istanbul, reflecting investor optimism that Turkey could become a new strategic export hub by the late 2020s.
Analysts predict that if finalized, the deal could attract over $2.5 billion in joint investment over the next five years and create thousands of high-tech jobs in central and western Anatolia.
“This is not just about minerals — it’s about industrial transformation,” said Kaya. “Rare earths could become the backbone of Turkey’s next export boom, just as steel and textiles once were.”
A Balancing Act for Erdoğan
For President Erdoğan, the rare earth deal represents both a geopolitical opportunity and a domestic challenge. Aligning closely with the U.S. may strengthen Turkey’s economy and international standing, but it risks angering nationalist and Eurasianist factions within his government that favor closer ties with Russia and China.
“Erdoğan will need to walk a fine line,” said Dr. Alkan. “But given the economic benefits and the growing importance of green and digital technologies, this pivot is more pragmatic than political.”
Outlook: Turkey’s Rare Earth Future
If successful, the partnership could mark the beginning of a new era in transatlantic industrial cooperation, positioning Turkey as a critical node in the global rare earth supply chain. It would also demonstrate how middle powers can leverage their natural resources for strategic influence amid an increasingly fragmented world order.
As one senior U.S. diplomat in Ankara put it:
“Rare earths are the new oil — and Turkey is realizing it’s sitting on the next great geopolitical resource.”
The coming months will determine whether this realization translates into an enduring alliance — or another missed opportunity in the battle for the world’s most coveted materials.
